This is the working, and it’s members only.
Every report on this site shows its conclusion in plain English for free. This page is the other half: every source we used, flagged primary or derivative; where ten news reports collapse into one piece of evidence; the starting odds each explanation got before we weighed anything, and the reference class they came from; the weight assigned to every fact, with the reasoning; and the bets we’ve committed to in advance about what happens next.
If you think our number is wrong, this is where you find out which number, and say why. [Log in or become a member.]